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Free Copy of Lawyer Boy Contest

 

 

 

 

A few days ago I hosted a “win a free copy of Lawyer Boy” contest in which readers were encouraged to test out their lawyering skills/powers of persuasion and email me and make a compelling case as to why they should get a free copy of the book. I haven’t yet picked a winner, but it’s become clear to me that many RickLax.com readers are way funnier than me, which is humbling, flattering, and annoying.

Here’s one of the entries I received:

“Let me tell you why I should get a copy. Frankly, because I don't have anything to read. I went into the hospital right before reading period this past semester, because I was s#%!!ing around 8 times an hour. No joke. I ended up with some internal bleeding and a bad colon problem that, though it got fixed up, ends up with me taking a s#!* at least 4 times a day. Apparently the doctors say that's normal. With all that s#%*ing, I go through pleasure reading, well lets just say I go through it faster than the food goes through me. I need something to read.”

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Never before have I read

Never before have I read something on the internet and felt compelled to post a comment. you fuckin suck. seriously.

 Please watch the meanness

 Please watch the meanness and the language on this blog.  My parents read this. 

I feel sorry for them.

I feel sorry for them.

I ususally post under

I ususally post under "Anonymous." Obviously that wasn't me. How rude!



I'm Smarter Than a Monkey!

 

The oracle said that Socrates was the smartest man in Greece because he acknowledged and appreciated his own ignorance. I must be the smartest law school graduate in Chicago because I’m painfully aware of how much I don’t know.

I just took a diagnostic test on the multi-state multiple choice section of the bar exam…and scored a 35%.

Now, the good news is that each question had four options, meaning I did better than a monkey would have done on the exam.

But I’m pretty sure that if you gave the 50-qustion exam to a bunch of monkeys, one of them would have beat 35%. Damn, back in high school, I probably could have told you exactly how many monkeys (who answer exam questions randomly) would need to take a 50-question multiple-choice exam (in which each question has four answer choices) to make it more likely than not that one of them would score at or above the 35% mark.

Tell you what, anybody who can figure out the answer to that question gets a free copy of LAWYER BOY.

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Not enough

Not enough information...although I'm sure if you asked a bunch of monkeys, one of them would answer you correctly

Pretty sure I gave enough

Pretty sure I gave enough info...what else do you need?

How smart are the monkeys?

How smart are the monkeys?

 average monkey smart

 average monkey smart

Is it 4 to the 50th power

Is it 4 to the 50th power monkeys? The problem with monkey analysis is that it's not a complete random number generator. The monkeys might influence one another, after all monkey see, monkey do. Monkeys tend to pick "B" repeatedly because monkeys think that B means banana.

 Okay, counselor Pirates, I

 Okay, counselor Pirates, I will hit up my calculator and get back to you.  My gut tells me your guess is too high, but we will see...

I bet it's .35*(4^50)

I bet it's .35*(4^50) monkeys. If you're only trying for 35% accuracy. But, I don't think it's entirely right because monkeys aren't random number generators. They're not dependent variables. If monkey-see monkey-do holds true, then they could very well all hit the same button each time (see supra re bananas)

What's up Ricky. You lawyers

What's up Ricky. You lawyers may be smart - most probably smarter than monkeys even ... but it looks like you need the help of a Financial Engineer with this problem. ;)

You'd need ~13 monkeys taking the test such that there is a greater than 50% chance that at least one of them scores 35% or better.

A single monkey has a score that follows a binomial distribution with 50 trials and a success of each trial of 25% (ie, 50 questions, 4 choices each question). This binomial distribution can be approximated with a normal distribution with mean of [50 * .25] and standard deviation of [sqrt(50 * .25 * .75)]. To get at least 35% correct on the test, the monkey would need at least 17.5 questions correct, which is 1.63 standard deviations from the mean [(17.5 - mean) / std dev]. A z-score of 1.63 or better happens 5.12% of the time [1 - (standard normal cumulative distribution function evaluated at 1.63)] meaning that a single monkey would score 35% or better with probability 5.12%.

Now we want to know how many monkeys it takes to get a 50% probability or better that at least one of them scores at least 35%. With a batch of n monkeys, the probability that NONE of them score 35% or better is [(1 - 5.12%) ^ n]. So, the probably that AT LEAST ONE of them scores 35% or better is [1 - (1 - 5.12%) ^ n]. We want this probability to be greater than or equal to 50%, so simply set this equation equal to 50%, and solve for n (consolidate terms, take log of both sides, and divide). Viola - 13.179 monkeys!

It's up to you to determine whether 13 monkeys is a comforting number or not. At any rate, I would guess there are many fewer videos of monkeys doing card tricks on YouTube. =)



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